Calculate conditional probabilities and update beliefs with evidence
Disease prevalence 1%, test sensitivity 95%, specificity 90%
30% spam rate, keyword "FREE" in 60% of spam, 5% of legitimate email
0.001% threat rate, scanner 99% accurate, 10% false positive
Initial probability of event A
0.010Probability of B given A is true
0.950Probability of B given A is false
0.100